MSc Programme & Change

Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management · CDU-BUS-PCM-900 · MSc · v1.0.0

The control numbers of a programme: earned-value variances, indices and estimates at completion; three-point PERT estimates and the probability of meeting a deadline along a path; the expected monetary value of a risk register and the reserve it implies; and the cost slope of crashing an activity.

Lineage

Conquest Designer University, 2026 — authored from the brief and the PMI/AXELOS standards; no prior institution is claimed

Final research project

Knowing where a programme stands: earned value, schedule risk, risk reserves and the price of time

Syllabus

Cost and schedule control: PV, EV, AC, CV, SV, CPI, SPI, EAC, ETC, VAC, TCPI (PMI EVM Standard)
Estimating: three-point (beta/PERT) estimates, path variance, probability of completion
Risk: probability and impact, expected monetary value, threats and opportunities, contingency reserve
Schedule compression: crashing, the cost slope, crashing the cheapest critical activity first

Reference

Earned value: CV = EV − AC; SV = EV − PV; CPI = EV ÷ AC; SPI = EV ÷ PV; EAC = BAC ÷ CPI; TCPI = (BAC − EV) ÷ (BAC − AC)
PERT: te = (o + 4m + p) ÷ 6; σ = (p − o) ÷ 6; P(T ≤ D) = Φ((D − Σte) ÷ √Σσ²)
EMV: Σ probability × impact (threats negative, opportunities positive)
Crash cost slope: (crash cost − normal cost) ÷ (normal time − crash time)

Units

Earned-value performance and forecast · PERT path estimate and deadline probability · Expected monetary value of a risk register · Crash cost slope

Role when narrated: You are a programme director reporting to the programme board. Say where the programme stands against plan, show the numbers, and name the decision the board must take now.

Earned-value performance and forecast · earned_value

Example filled in — consult below

Is the work over or under budget and ahead or behind schedule, and what will it cost at completion at this efficiency?

Reference: PMI (2019) The Standard for Earned Value Management; PMBOK® Guide — cost control, EAC = BAC/CPI (typical variance)

Returns

costVariance: EV − AC
scheduleVariance: EV − PV
cpi: EV ÷ AC
spi: EV ÷ PV
eac: BAC ÷ CPI
etc: EAC − AC
vac: BAC − EAC
tcpi: (BAC − EV) ÷ (BAC − AC); null once AC ≥ BAC

The example

{
  "bac": 1000000,
  "plannedValue": 400000,
  "earnedValue": 350000,
  "actualCost": 420000
}

Agents: POST /faculty/msc-programme--change/earned_value with JSON {pan, …inputs} and the x-402-payment header. Manifest.

PERT path estimate and deadline probability · pert_estimate

Try with the example

What is the expected duration of this path, its uncertainty, and the chance of finishing by the deadline?

Reference: Malcolm et al. (1959) PERT: beta-approximated three-point estimates; PMBOK® Guide three-point estimating; normal approximation for the path (central limit theorem)

Returns

expectedDurations: te per activity (4 dp)
pathExpected: Σ te
pathSd: √Σσ²
probabilityByDeadline: Φ((deadline − Σte) ÷ σ)

The example

{
  "optimistic": [
    4,
    6,
    3
  ],
  "mostLikely": [
    6,
    8,
    5
  ],
  "pessimistic": [
    10,
    14,
    9
  ],
  "deadline": 22
}

Agents: POST /faculty/msc-programme--change/pert_estimate with JSON {pan, …inputs} and the x-402-payment header. Manifest.

Expected monetary value of a risk register · risk_emv

Try with the example

What is the probability-weighted exposure of these risks, threats and opportunities separately, and net?

Reference: PMBOK® Guide — quantitative risk analysis: expected monetary value; threats negative, opportunities positive

Returns

emvs: Probability × impact per risk (2 dp)
threatEmv: Σ EMV of threats
opportunityEmv: Σ EMV of opportunities
netEmv: Σ EMV

The example

{
  "probabilities": [
    0.3,
    0.1,
    0.5,
    0.2
  ],
  "impacts": [
    -50000,
    -200000,
    -20000,
    30000
  ]
}

Agents: POST /faculty/msc-programme--change/risk_emv with JSON {pan, …inputs} and the x-402-payment header. Manifest.

Crash cost slope · crash_cost_slope

Try with the example

What does each day saved on this activity cost, and what would saving this many days cost?

Reference: PMBOK® Guide — schedule compression by crashing; cost slope = (crash cost − normal cost) ÷ (normal time − crash time), linear

Returns

costSlope: Cost per day saved
maxDaysSaved: Normal − crash time
costToSave: Slope × days (capped at the maximum)

The example

{
  "normalTime": 20,
  "crashTime": 14,
  "normalCost": 50000,
  "crashCost": 68000,
  "daysToSave": 4
}

Agents: POST /faculty/msc-programme--change/crash_cost_slope with JSON {pan, …inputs} and the x-402-payment header. Manifest.